Integrated Resilience, Gender, and Peace & Conflict Analysis --Syria and Lebanon

CONTEXT

Syria's post-conflict environment remains deeply fragile. Since December 2024, nearly 1.99 million IDP returnees and over 1.14 million cross-border arrivals have been recorded, representing 11% of the total population. Syria's Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) 2026 estimates 15.6 million people in need of assistance, including over 5.5 million IDPs. Over 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, and economic stress continues to undermine stability and strain local coping mechanisms.

Lebanon continues to face significant humanitarian needs following the escalation of hostilities in March 2026. Despite repeated ceasefire announcements and diplomatic efforts, the situation remains volatile. Insecurity persists in several areas, particularly in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa, limiting safe and sustainable returns for many displaced families. Ongoing displacement, damaged infrastructure, explosive hazard contamination, and disrupted access to essential services continue to exacerbate vulnerabilities among conflict-affected populations while placing additional strain on Lebanon's already overstretched public systems. At the peak of the crisis, more than one million people were displaced, including over 127,000 individuals accommodated in 631 collective shelters. The conflict has also resulted in more than 3,185 deaths and 9,633 injuries, underscoring its severe humanitarian impact and the continued need for humanitarian assistance and recovery support. Moreover, Lebanon hosts an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees, the highest per capita refugee population in the world. The governorates of Baalbeck El-Hermel and Akkar -- IRC's target areas -- are historically among the most economically marginalized in Lebanon and host significant concentrations of Syrian refugees and Lebanese returnees.

IRC is developing a three-year, EUR 8 million multi-sector regional program under the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), Transitional Development Assistance (TDA) framework, targeting Syrian-affected populations in Syria and Lebanon across Livelihoods, Education/Early Childhood Development (ECD) sectors. The analysis should also note protection risks where relevant, given IRC's protection mainstreaming approach. Protection risks must be systematically analyzed across all components (Resilience Analysis, Peace and Conflict Analysis, and Gender Analysis), including how economic vulnerability, displacement, and conflict dynamics create or exacerbate risks for different population groups, in line with IRC’s protection mainstreaming approach. The program will be delivered in partnership with local organizations, with a minimum of 45% of program funds directed to local partners.

To meet BMZ's analytical requirements and ensure the program is evidence-based, IRC requires an external consultant to conduct an integrated regional analysis combining three mandatory components: a Resilience Analysis (RA), a Peace and Conflict Analysis (PCA), and a Gender Analysis (GA). These must be delivered as a single coherent document that directly informs the program's Theory of Change, logframe, and partner engagement strategy.

2. SCOPE OF WORK

This consultancy will produce a single integrated report that presents three mandatory BMZ TDA components the Gender Analysis (GA), as well as Resilience, Peace and Conflict Analysis (RPCA).While the three analyses are to be presented in one document, each must be addressed with sufficient depth to stand independently as required by BMZ. The outcomes of these analyses will directly inform the design, Theory of Change, and logframe of IRC's 2026 BMZ TDA regional proposal for Syria and Lebanon.

For Lebanon (Baalbeck El-Hermel and Akkar): The consultant will execute full-scope primary data collection (KIIs/FGDs) alongside secondary desk reviews across all pillars (RPCA, and GA).

For Syria (Aleppo and Homs): A robust and comprehensive Resilience, Peace, and Conflict Analysis (RPCA) was concluded in May 2026. Therefore, the RPCA pillar for Syria is treated as complete secondary desk contributions. The consultant will review, extract, and synthesize the findings of the May 2026 Syria RPCA directly into the regional framework. Primary field data collection in Syria will be conducted exclusively for the Gender Analysis (GA).2.1 Consultant's Role in the Resilience Analysis (RA)

The RA must provide a comprehensive understanding of three interconnected areas, as required by BMZ's Guiding Framework for Analysis, Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation:

• Existing risks and crises in the context, covering economic, ecological, political, security-related, and social dimensions at individual, household, community, and sub-national levels, with a particular focus on food security and livelihoods;
• Affected and responsible actors and structures, and their existing strengths, potential, and capacities (resilience capacities) to cope with risks and crises, analyzed across stabilization, adaptation, and transformation dimensions;
• Needs and opportunities to further strengthen crisis management and prevention capacities on a cross-sectoral basis.

Syria Implementation Note: The consultant will extract these elements for Syria directly from the May 2026 Syria RPCA report. For Lebanon, full primary and secondary analysis is required. The completed Resilience Capacity Matrix (per BMZ Guiding Framework Appendix 3) covering both countries remains a mandatory final deliverable.

2.2 Consultant's Role in the Peace and Conflict Analysis (PCA)

The PCA must address four mandatory elements as required by BMZ's Guiding Framework:

• Key drivers of conflict, fragility, and violence in target areas, including actor mapping and analysis of structural, proximate, and trigger factors;
• Relevance assessment: how the proposed program relates to peace and security dynamics, and how it could contribute to or undermine stability;
• Risks for project realization arising from the conflict and fragility of context, including cross border access constraints, partner risks, and operational risks;
• Do-no-harm and conflict-sensitive impact monitoring: how the program design minimizes unintended negative effects and how conflict sensitivity will be tracked during implementation.

The PCA must also address the HDP (Humanitarian-Development-Peace) Nexus dimension, identifying coordination opportunities with humanitarian and peacebuilding actors active in target areas, and assessing where IRC's program can contribute to collective outcomes.

Syria Implementation Note: The baseline conflict drivers, actor maps, and local peace capacities for Homs and Aleppo will be extracted and synthesized directly from the May 2026 Syria RPCA. No new primary field data collection for conflict mapping will be executed in Syria. The consultant will explicitly address the HDP (Humanitarian-Development-Peace) Nexus dimension and coordination opportunities for both contexts identifying coordination opportunities with humanitarian and peacebuilding actors active in target areas, and assessing where IRC's program can contribute to collective outcomes.

2.3 Consultant's Role in the Gender Analysis (GA)

The GA must primarily address the contextual gender dimensions facing the target population, as required by BMZ's Gender and Inclusion guidance for GG-2 marker compliance. The GA will involve active primary data collection across both Lebanon and Syria to capture critical structural shifts. The analysis must cover:

• Gender dimensions and inequalities in Syria and Lebanon, with particular attention to the target governorates: differential access to resources, services, and decision-making; gendered impacts of displacement; and protection risks facing women, girls, men, and boys;
• Gender dimensions by sector: how gender shapes access to resources and outcomes from Livelihoods and Education/ECD interventions; How gender intersects with other dimensions of identity to vulnerability (age, disability, displacement status, ethnicity etc)
• Gender dimension of return: what are the gender specific constraints to return and reintegration
• Gender sensitivity of local partner organizations proposed for the program;
• Recommendations for gender-sensitive and gender-transformative program design, including specific measures for the Livelihoods and Education/ECD sectors.
• Identify indicators and monitoring approaches that can track gender-transformative change over time.

The GA must also examine how gender dynamics manifest differently across the target governorates in Syria and Lebanon, and how IRC's Livelihoods and Education/ECD interventions can be designed to address these contextual differences.

The GA should secondarily review IRC's own programming capacity, including staff and M&E systems, but this internal review is not the primary purpose of the analysis.

3. CORE QUESTIONS

The analysis must address the following question clusters. Questions are organized by analytical component, but the consultant is expected to address cross-cutting linkages throughout.

Resilience Analysis

1. Risks and crises

• 1.1 What are the main economic, ecological, political, security-related, and social risks facing communities in the target areas?
• 1.2 How do risks and vulnerabilities manifest differently for women, men, boys, and girls, and for different displacement categories (host community, IDP, refugee, returnee)?
• 1.3 How have the events of December 2024 (change in government/fall of the Assad regime) and subsequent developments altered the risk landscape in Syria?
• How does the war in Lebanon impact Syrian refugees, and how does this impact return dynamics?

2. Actors and resilience capacities

• 2.1 Which actors -- including local authorities, civil society, community structures, and local organizations -- play a role in coping with and managing risks? What are their capacities across stabilization, adaptation, and transformation dimensions?
• 2.2 What is the capacity of IRC's proposed local partners to contribute to resilience outcomes?

3. Needs and opportunities

• 3.1 What are the most critical gaps in crisis management and prevention capacity at community and sub-national level?
• 3.2 Where do the greatest opportunities lie for cross-sectoral strengthening of resilience, particularly at the intersection of Livelihoods and Education/ECD?
• 3.3 Complete the Resilience Capacity Matrix per BMZ Guiding Framework Appendix 3.

Peace and Conflict Analysis

4. Conflict dynamics

• 4.1 What are the main drivers of conflict and fragility in the target areas, at local, national, and regional levels?
• 4.2 Which actors are relevant to the conflict dynamics -- including armed actors, local authorities, community leaders, diaspora networks, and external actors -- and what are their interests, capacities, and relationships?
• 4.3 What peace capacities exist at community and sub-national level that the program could reinforce?

5. Program relevance and do-no-harm

• 5.1 How does the proposed program relate to the conflict and fragility dynamics identified? Where could it contribute to stability, and where could it inadvertently exacerbate tensions?
• 5.2 What are the possible unintended negative effects of the program arising from geographic focus, target group selection, sector choices, or partner selection?
• 5.3 What measures can minimize these risks?
• 5.4 Are all groups addressed in line with the Leave No One Behind principle? Are there groups who could be excluded or harmed by the program's design?
• Which vulnerable or marginalized groups may face risks of exclusion or harm based on program design, targeting, or implementation modalities?

6. HDP Nexus

• 6.1 Which humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding actors are active in the target areas? What comparative advantages do they have?
• 6.2 Are there established coordination mechanisms for the HDP Nexus in these contexts? What collective outcomes have been formulated?
• 6.3 Where is there concrete potential for synergies or cooperation, particularly in the context of IRC's Nexus approach?

Gender Analysis

7. Contextual gender dimensions

• 7.1 What are the main gender-based inequalities and protection risks facing women, men, boys, and girls in the target areas, including among Syrian refugees in Lebanon and returnees in Syria?
• 7.2 How do gender dynamics intersect with displacement, socioeconomic status, age, and disability?
• 7.3 What are the gendered dimensions of access to livelihoods opportunities, and what structural and social barriers prevent women and girls from accessing economic opportunities?
• 7.4 What are the gendered dimensions of access to education and ECD, including barriers related to safety, cultural and gender norms, and economic constraints?
• Are there restrictions, formal or informal that limits women and girls freedom of movement, access to livelihood and education services and participation in community life?

8. Programming implications

• 8.1 What specific gender-sensitive or gender-transformative measures should be incorporated into the Livelihoods program design?
• 8.2 What specific measures should be incorporated into the Education/ECD program design?
• 8.3 To what extent are IRC's proposed local partners gender-sensitive? What capacity-building may be required?
• 8.4 What monitoring indicators and approaches would best capture gender outcomes for this program?

4. METHODOLOGY

The consultant will design a detailed methodology proposal covering all three analysis components as part of the inception report. The proposal should include a timeline for the analysis along with a detailed workplan.

4.1 Desk Review Phase

The methodology will include a thorough desk review constituting the inception phase, relying on BMZ requirements and existing evaluations and data. The desk review must include IRC's own existing analyses -- Protection Monitoring reports, Safety Audits, MEAL data, and the 2024 Resilience/PCA and Gender Analysis reports produced for IRC Syria's previous BMZ TDA submission for Syria and Lebanon -- as well as the 2026 Resilience/PCA for Syria and the published secondary data on Syria and Lebanon contexts.

The baseline phase will rely heavily on existing evaluations and institutional datasets.

• For the Syria Portfolio: The recently finalized May 2026 Homs and Aleppo RPCA report serves as the complete baseline for the Resilience and Conflict pillars .The consultant will extract, analyze, and incorporate these existing chapters into the regional report without executing new field-level assessments for these specific sectors . Additional desk review documents include IRC's 2024 Gender Analysis, Protection Monitoring reports, Safety Audits, and MEAL/FARM data.

4.2 Primary Data Collection Phase

To uphold the Do No Harm principle and avoid over-assessing communities, primary data collection via representative number of Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) is split as follows:

• In Lebanon: In-person primary data collection is mandatory across all analytical components (RA, PCA, GA) within Baalbeck El-Hermel and Akkar.
• In Syria: Primary data collection (utilizing remote or direct field methods depending on local access and security constraints) will be conducted exclusively for the Gender Analysis (GA). Field tools, KII prompts, and FGDs in Aleppo (Menbij/Al-Bab) and Homs will be strictly limited to tracking gendered barriers, safety profiles, documentation bottlenecks, and shifts in gender dynamics resulting from recent political transition. No primary field tracking will be executed for system resilience or conflict mapping in Syria.

The consultant will coordinate with IRC's MEAL teams and local partners, who will support FGD facilitation. The consultant remains responsible for training partner staff on data collection protocols prior to fieldwork.

Geographic Coverage:

• Syria: Aleppo Governorate (Menbij and Al-Bab); Homs Governorate (Homs City Centre and Rural Homs)
• Lebanon: Baalbeck El-Hermel and Akkar

Ethics and Protection:

The consultant must include a section on research ethics and protection in the inception report. The analysis must be designed to respect and protect the rights and welfare of participants, be technically accurate and conducted in a transparent and impartial manner, and adhere to IRC's safeguarding policy and the do-no-harm principle throughout, including in the design of data collection tools, participant selection, and facilitation of FGDs and KIIs. Questions and discussion prompts must be conflict-sensitive and must not expose participants to risk.

5. DELIVERABLES

• Qualitative data collection tools (KII and FGD guides)
• Inception report outlining the scope, methodology, workplan, and detailed analysis questions, to be shared within 6 working days of the consultancy start date and formally agreed with IRC before primary data collection commences
• Validation workshop with key IRC staff including senior management and technical advisors, following preliminary data analysis. The validation workshop findings and the draft final report should be reviewed by the Regional MEAL Advisor prior to finalization
• Draft final report in English, shared with IRC for comments within 3 working days
• Final integrated analysis report in English, not exceeding 60 pages (main body), with country-specific data and supplementary findings in annexes. The report must include: title page and cover; table of contents; acknowledgements (optional); executive summary; list of acronyms; background; methodology; main findings by component (RA, PCA, GA); completed Resilience Capacity Matrix (per BMZ Appendix 3); conclusions; and evidence-based recommendations for IRC's program design and Theory of Change
• PowerPoint presentation summarizing methodology, key findings, and strategic recommendations for IRC stakeholders
• Recommendations should be practical and prioritized, and clearly linked to program design decisions, including targeting, geographic focus, and implementation approach.

6. WORKPLAN

Activity

Level of Effort

Timeline

Desk Review and Preliminary Analysis

7 days

Starts June 15

Inception Report (including methodology, workplan, and draft data collection tools)

2 days

By June 23

Inception Review Meeting with IRC

1 day

June 24

Primary Data Collection (KIIs and FGDs, Syria and Lebanon)

10 days

June 25 -- July 7

Data Analysis

4 days

July 8-11

Validation Workshop

1 day

July 14

Draft Final Report

7 days

July 15-21

IRC Review Period

3 days

July 22-24

Final Report Incorporating IRC Comments

3 days

By July 28

TOTAL

35 days

7. PAYMENT RATE AND SCHEDULE

• 10% of the total consultancy fee upon IRC's approval of the inception report
• 90% of the total consultancy fee upon IRC's approval of the final report and all deliverables

8. LOGISTICS SUPPORT

Remote consultancy is acceptable and travel to the work location is optional. Given access and security constraints in Syria, remote data collection methods are acceptable for Syria, subject to justification in the inception report. In-person data collection in Lebanon is encouraged where security permits. IRC is not responsible for the data collection and logistics in the areas of research and it is the consultant responsibility to do the necessary data collection

9. REQUIREMENTS

• Relevant advanced degree and minimum 7 years of experience in areas such as political economy, conflict analysis, resilience, gender, or development in fragile contexts. Where a small team is proposed, members should collectively cover expertise across all three analytical components (resilience, gender, and peace and conflict analysis)
• Demonstrated contextual expertise in Syria and Lebanon, with strong understanding of post-December 2024 dynamics in both contexts
• Proficiency in conducting resilience analyses, PCAs, and gender analyses in line with BMZ TDA or equivalent donor frameworks
• Arabic language proficiency (spoken and written); English proficiency for report writing
• Excellent data analysis skills and ability to articulate the linkage between findings, analysis, and program recommendations
• Proven experience and track record of timely and high-quality completion of assignments
• High level of organization and time management, as well as an ability to learn quickly and produce high-quality work under tight deadlines

10. ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

Criteria

Weight

Educational background and relevant technical expertise

25%

Syria and/or Lebanon contextual expertise

20%

Experience with BMZ TDA or equivalent analytical frameworks

15%

Proven experience producing gender analyses in fragile contexts

20%

Financial offer

20%

11. DATA OWNERSHIP

All data and information received for the purpose of this assignment are to be treated confidentially and are only to be used in connection with the execution of these Terms of Reference. All intellectual property rights arising from the execution of these Terms of Reference are assigned to IRC. The contents of written material obtained and used in this assignment may not be disclosed to any third parties. No data should stay with the consultant following the approved end of the assignment.

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